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The rebirth of Downtown Memphis can't be stopped by a mere global recession, but the economic downturn is expected to slow the flow of new projects in the coming year.

Enough development is in the pipeline to maintain momentum going into 2009 -- nearly $3 billion at last count -- but projects that don't have financing in place face an uncertain future.

"No question, the economic factors will limit new project starts, but I am confident that Downtown will ride out the storm and that as things improve, we'll be able to pick up and move on," said Jeff Sanford, president of the Center City Commission.

The agency tracked $2.9 billion in public and private investment in a jurisdiction that covers Downtown and the Medical Center. The figure included multiyear projects under planning, design, construction or completed within the past 12 months.

"Most of this was financed before the downturn," Sanford said.

The most visible casualty of evaporating credit was One Beale, whose lead developer, Gene Carlisle, announced in late September that he was splitting the $186 million mixed-use project into phases.

Carlisle's group plans to start small, with a $25 million to $30 million low-rise hotel, and indefinitely delay a residential tower.

"It's fairly safe to assume that unless your project was financed and under development in Downtown Memphis or Downtown Anywhere, nothing will be happening. We believe 2009 will be a really rough year for the real economy," said John Basek, a partner in Court Square Center.

Court Square Center was one of the major success stories of 2008. Basek and partners capped a six-year, $50 million to $60 million effort to redevelop and build on the northwest corner of Court Square.

They began leasing apartments in the renovated Lincoln-American Tower in May and completed renovation of the historic Lowenstein building in December. Leasing of 28 apartments in the former department store at Jefferson and Main is ready to begin.

The final piece, the CA2 building, is rising from the ashes of the old Court Annex. It will have 16 apartments and is expected to be done around Labor Day.

As tight credit holds back some projects, the planning of orderly Downtown growth will go on.

A Main Street task force formed by Center City last fall will continue its look at improvements and changes, including whether to return vehicles to Main Street south of Adams. Major changes would require city government action.